Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1556…2cbd politics 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$17
other 4% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 88 -2.8% -12.1% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage668d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8? Mar 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Next Ethereum hard fork live by end of 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Justin Jefferson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 250-499 men in a day? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Bears win the NFC North? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 31d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 33d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 39d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 42d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 42d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 45d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 73d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 74d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 74d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 84d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 84d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 88d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 89d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 93d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 94d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 97d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 98d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $57 102d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $57 102d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 103d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records