Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1557…e7bd crypto 1553 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-5%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%1303W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$97
other 14% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 10% -10.0%
≤30d 1082 -3.7% -12.8% 88% 11% -14.0%
≤90d 1553 -4.7% -13.8% 84% 14% -14.4%
all 1553 -4.7% -13.8% 84% 14% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 14% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 8% -22.6%
15% -29.6% 6% -30.1%
20% -36.5% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1303 / 250
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1553 / 1553
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1553 Trades
no open positions (210 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 14h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3022 history records