trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $37 | +$27 (+270%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$1 | -12% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Jun 11 | $40 | +$6 | +15% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Apr 27 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 19 | $19 | +$4 | +20% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | Apr 14 | $4 | −$2 | -46% |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, | Apr 14 | $6 | −$2 | -39% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 14 | $10 | −$3 | -25% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Apr 14 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | Apr 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, | Apr 13 | $15 | −$1 | -8% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 12 | $10 | +$6 | +55% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 33% | 33% | -17.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 33% | 33% | -17.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -26.9% | -33.9% | 33% | 33% | -28.2% |
| all | 12 | -26.9% | -33.9% | 33% | 33% | -28.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.9% | 33% | -28.2% |
| 10% | -40.2% | 8% | -35.0% |
| 15% | -46.0% | 8% | -41.3% |
| 20% | -51.3% | 8% | -47.1% |