Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x155d…231b other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$519 (-11%) realized −$522 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$51
world 27% −$527
weather 20% +$3
sports 4% +$17
politics 3% +$5
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +45.2% +31.3% 26% 21% +12.5%
≤30d 48 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 12% -26.5%
≤90d 49 +4.5% -5.4% 49% 12% -20.8%
all 49 +4.5% -5.4% 49% 12% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 12% -20.8%
10% -14.5% 8% -28.4%
15% -22.7% 8% -35.3%
20% -30.3% 6% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)49 / 58
History coverage34d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $25 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 30¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+105%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -21%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +36%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -60%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $0 $0 -91%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$1 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $37 −$13 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $77 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,254 −$527 -42%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,944 −$82 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $39 9h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $42 9h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 30h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $13 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $48 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $49 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.22 · official $223.22 (match) · 115 history records