Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x155d…3ec8 other 397 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,204 (-17%) realized −$13,115 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%143W / 250L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$2,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$221
7 days+$183
14 days−$5,203
30 days−$4,688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$11,163
sports 17% −$1,527
crypto 5% −$777
world 0% −$75
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -29.4% -36.1% 30% 30% -2.9%
≤30d 132 -41.9% -47.5% 26% 25% -45.9%
≤90d 231 -18.7% -26.4% 35% 35% -19.4%
all 393 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 36% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 36% -26.7%
10% -32.0% 35% -33.7%
15% -38.6% 33% -40.1%
20% -44.6% 30% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$137 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$2,922
Realized−$13,115
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses143 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)393 / 397
History coverage164d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2,685 $2,457 −$228 (-9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $300 $421 +$122 (+41%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $129 −$127 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 −$76 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$81 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 +$32 +66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 +$101 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $138 +$144 +105%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$189 +93%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $145 +$274 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $18 +$44 +238%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$71 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $99 +$75 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 +$89 +110%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $212 −$41 -20%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $63 +$150 +237%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $65 −$63 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$18 -69%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $99 +$113 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $75 −$73 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $133 +$151 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $79 +$54 +69%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $193 +$12 +6%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $51 +$45 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $160 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $212 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $13 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $26 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $46 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $129 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $98 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $20 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $77 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $111 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $83 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $81 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $398 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $202 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $282 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $138 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $138 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $48 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $868 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $145 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,921.86 · official $2,921.91 (match) · 849 history records