Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x155f…660e other 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 223d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$739 (+25%) realized +$920 · open −$181

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$230per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 223d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤30d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤90d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
all	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+31.7%	100%	+31.7%
10% ← realistic here	+19.1%	100%	+19.1%
15%	+7.6%	100%	+7.6%
20%	-3.0%	0%	-3.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$920 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage

Net worth$761

Realized+$920

Unrealized−$181

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions12

Markets (closed)1 / 13

History coverage223d

Avg bet$230

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$250	$125	−$125 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$94	−$6 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$93	−$7 (-7%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$83	−$17 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-3%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$22	$18	−$4 (-17%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$20	$10	−$10 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	Jun 16	$2,020	+$920	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$22	3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$41	3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	3h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	3h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	4h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$257	4h
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$389	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$1	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$1	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$39	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$196	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$100	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$115	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$180	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$447	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$693	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$778	216d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	67¢	$886	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	67¢	$120	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	67¢	$6	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	67¢	$328	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	68¢	$86	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	68¢	$7	223d
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?	BUY Yes	68¢	$7	223d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.92 · official $760.92 (match) · 37 history records