Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156b…5808 crypto 1074 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$565 (+4%) realized +$437 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%685W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day268.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$541
14 days+$437
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$496
weather 17% +$76
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 879 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 20% -5.7%
≤30d 1018 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 21% -7.0%
≤90d 1018 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 21% -7.0%
all 1018 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 21% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover268.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 21% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 16% -15.9%
15% -27.6% 14% -24.0%
20% -34.7% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses685 / 333
Open positions56
Markets (closed)1018 / 1074
History coverage9d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day268.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 1018 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $55 $132 +$77 (+140%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+608%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 46¢ $9 $19 +$9 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+415%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $14 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$11 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$26 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$13 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$15 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$88 +130%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +158%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$24 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.15 · official $560.68 (match) · 3500 history records