Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x156b…0ba2 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+16%) realized +$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$73
sports 5% +$6
world 2% −$10
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 62% +18.9%
≤30d 8 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 62% +18.9%
≤90d 8 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 62% +18.9%
all 8 -11.1% -19.6% 62% 62% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 62% +18.9%
10% -27.3% 50% +7.5%
15% -34.3% 50% -2.9%
20% -40.7% 12% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $121 +$58 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 33h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $10 33h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 33h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $10 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 36h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 37h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $10 37h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.70 · official $229.70 (match) · 22 history records