Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x156b…4b9e other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 26% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 12% +$1
tech 7% +$1
sports 4% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 33 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage450d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $9 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 04 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Jul 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 02 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $22 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? SELL No 95¢ $15 351d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 351d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 351d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? BUY No 95¢ $15 351d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 351d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 351d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.23 · official $36.00 (match) · 113 history records