trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $10 | $9 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | No | 48¢ | 48¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 85¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) | Switzerland | 35¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $101 | +$15 | +15% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 | Jun 14 | $10 | +$8 | +79% |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | +$9 | +93% |
| Spread: Haiti (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $10 | +$7 | +70% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $10 | +$15 | +152% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $10 | +$17 | +165% |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | Jun 04 | $25 | +$25 | +97% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $176 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 | May 19 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? | May 19 | $25 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? | May 19 | $25 | +$4 | +14% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | May 19 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +44.9% | +31.1% | 86% | 71% | +15.9% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +42.6% | +29.0% | 86% | 57% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +42.6% | +29.0% | 86% | 57% | +5.6% |
| all | 14 | +42.6% | +29.0% | 86% | 57% | +5.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +29.0% | 57% | +5.6% |
| 10% | +16.7% | 43% | -4.5% |
| 15% | +5.4% | 43% | -13.7% |
| 20% | -4.9% | 43% | -22.2% |