Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x156b…c533
sports · 577 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,762 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,020 · open −$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized−$2,020
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses354 / 222
Est. fees paid−$394
Open positions1
Markets (closed)576 / 577
History coverage85d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 576 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$242
14 days+$299
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 56¢ 30¢ $175 $95 −$80 (-46%)
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Team Vitality 51¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 60¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season G2 NORD 55¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 61¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs G2 68¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs Qing Jiu Club (BO7) - Honor of Kings Challenger Cup Stage 1 Royal Never Give Up 77¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BNK FEARX 72¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 75¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny Dane Sweeny 71¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regular Season Dewa United Esports 70¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 70¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage MOUZ 60¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 83¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Galions 70¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs ZennIT (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season ZennIT 75¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Coco Gauff 74¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs NIP 48¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 48¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner G2 51¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs Team Liquid 67¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs Xtreme Gaming 73¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $46 +$33 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $74 +$70 +95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $74 −$73 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $74 −$73 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $75 −$74 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$30 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $87 −$86 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $88 +$49 +55%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$57 +70%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $152 +$151 +99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $89 +$36 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $160 +$129 +81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $88 +$30 +34%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $61 +$29 +49%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $100 +$60 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $99 −$98 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $80 +$18 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$199 +388%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $74 +$108 +145%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $99 −$98 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $97 −$96 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $77 +$41 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $80 −$79 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$80 +79%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 10 $74 −$73 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $128 +$146 +114%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $53 +$27 +51%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $51 +$10 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $39 −$39 -99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $32 −$1 -4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $40 −$8 -19%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $125 +$116 +93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $72 +$53 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $128 +$43 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $70 +$58 +82%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $46 +$23 +50%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $49 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $61 +$47 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$1,839
crypto 1% −$245
other 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $177 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $46 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $144 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $74 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $74 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 36¢ $74 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 51¢ $74 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $75 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $75 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $44 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $101 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $87 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $137 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $88 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $138 19h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $81 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $182 20h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $101 22h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL LOS 100¢ $303 23h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 49¢ $152 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $74 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $124 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $89 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $290 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $160 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 36¢ $60 30h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $117 30h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $88 33h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $88 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% -4.3%
≤30d 103 -0.0% -9.6% 58% 58% -11.6%
≤90d 576 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 61% -14.1%
all 576 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 61% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 61% -14.1%
10% -22.0% 56% -22.3%
15% -29.5% 44% -29.8%
20% -36.4% 24% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.40 · official $95.40 (match) · 1029 history records