Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x1570…de29 weather 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,331 (-3%) realized −$2,338 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%166W / 148L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$482est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$292
14 days+$807
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$260
sports 38% −$2,981
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 48% +3.8%
≤30d 147 -1.7% -11.0% 58% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 313 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 36% -12.0%
all 314 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 36% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% -12.0%
10% -20.3% 22% -20.4%
15% -28.0% 16% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$132 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$2,338
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses166 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$482
Open positions2
Markets (closed)314 / 316
History coverage106d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? No 79¢ 80¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? No 76¢ 83¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $82 −$7 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $70 +$41 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 −$8 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$21 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $53 +$20 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $87 −$52 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 +$29 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$12 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 −$33 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $153 −$145 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $118 −$20 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 +$45 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$33 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $341 +$382 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $196 +$48 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 −$26 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$69 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $161 +$20 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $251 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$30 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 +$20 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$18 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$20 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$12 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $552 −$18 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $103 −$76 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$35 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $144 −$98 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$20 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$31 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $560 −$211 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$29 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 74¢ $74 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $111 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $70 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $82 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $57 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $73 32h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $24 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 81¢ $26 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 52¢ $36 38h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $53 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $36 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 70¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $70 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $113 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 49¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $83 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $48 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.86 · official $151.99 (match) · 1436 history records