Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1573…68fb crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,056 (-2%) realized −$1,056 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%34W / 66L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days+$287
14 days+$287
30 days+$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,206
world 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -49.4% -54.2% 20% 20% -1.0%
≤30d 5 -49.4% -54.2% 20% 20% -1.0%
≤90d 100 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 34% -13.5%
all 100 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 34% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 33% -21.8%
15% -43.4% 33% -29.3%
20% -48.9% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$786 vs −$440 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,056
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses34 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage82d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $611 −$437 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1,409 +$1,758 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $651 −$651 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 10 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -93%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 07 $2,024 −$1,903 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 07 $890 −$851 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 07 $920 −$872 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 07 $710 −$687 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 07 $480 −$455 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 07 $820 −$19 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 07 $445 −$426 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $50 −$47 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 07 $410 +$448 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 07 $460 +$247 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 07 $456 −$433 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 07 $360 −$343 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 07 $250 −$197 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 07 $585 −$222 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 07 $320 +$384 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 07 $450 +$466 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 07 $301 −$288 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $310 +$440 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 06 $270 −$19 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 06 $150 −$144 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 06 $110 +$72 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 06 $300 +$220 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 06 $101 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 05 $250 +$185 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 05 $250 +$230 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 05 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 05 $896 +$804 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 05 $500 −$477 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 05 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 05 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 05 $520 +$443 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 05 $500 +$783 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 05 $460 −$439 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 05 $290 −$275 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 02 $319 −$303 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 02 $360 −$338 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $540 −$512 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 02 $527 −$507 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 02 $379 −$333 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 02 $230 −$216 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 02 $400 +$1,094 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 02 $264 −$253 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1,227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $271 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1,668 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $347 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $348 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $348 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 783 history records