Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1574…51ec crypto 1854 markets active 5h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%1072W / 782L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$10
14 days−$7
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
sports 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -14.7% -22.9% 53% 53% -21.8%
≤30d 851 -0.6% -10.0% 61% 61% -9.5%
≤90d 1850 -3.9% -13.0% 58% 57% -13.9%
all 1854 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 57% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 57% -13.1%
10% -21.1% 55% -21.4%
15% -28.7% 50% -29.0%
20% -35.7% 44% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses1072 / 782
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1854 / 1854
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1854 Trades
no open positions (467 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3283 history records