Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1577…cea8 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2691 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$383 (-4%) realized −$447 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day2691.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2691 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 38% -9.4%
≤30d 42 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 38% -9.4%
≤90d 42 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 38% -9.4%
all 42 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 38% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2691.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 38% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
80.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day2691.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 56¢ 38¢ $219 $147 −$72 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 34¢ 62¢ $77 $141 +$64 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $88 +$27 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $111 −$35 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $171 +$37 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$34 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $145 +$35 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $461 +$41 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $253 +$64 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $202 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $118 −$72 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $148 −$22 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $520 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $162 −$36 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $334 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $269 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $170 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $545 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $183 −$33 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $128 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $395 +$46 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $360 −$34 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $147 +$34 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $240 −$40 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $282 −$20 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $269 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $191 +$58 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $245 +$58 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$28 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$29 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $607 −$200 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $119 +$28 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$36 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $135 −$23 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $222 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$46 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $229 −$23 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $178 −$27 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $125 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $122 +$123 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.51 · official $338.25 · 3500 history records