Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x1579…3892 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,928 (-13%) realized −$1,765 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%61W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$330
7 days+$509
14 days+$310
30 days−$2,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$2,022
sports 29% +$139
other 14% −$468
politics 0% −$12
finance 0% +$6
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 80% 80% +22.7%
≤30d 120 -21.0% -28.5% 45% 40% -25.0%
≤90d 125 -20.2% -27.8% 46% 40% -24.8%
all 129 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 41% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 41% -24.7%
10% -34.4% 30% -32.0%
15% -40.8% 27% -38.5%
20% -46.6% 16% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$85 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized−$1,765
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses61 / 68
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions5
Markets (closed)129 / 134
History coverage260d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $452 $326 −$126 (-28%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 15¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$2 -12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $154 +$17 +11%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $354 +$150 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $202 +$85 +42%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $253 +$149 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$22 +87%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $78 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $62 −$60 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $553 −$547 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $257 −$207 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $257 +$171 +67%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $403 −$336 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $201 +$15 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $51 −$12 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $252 +$42 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $101 +$95 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $710 +$913 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $37 −$24 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $261 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $103 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 30 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $177 −$177 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 1m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 39¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $171 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $15 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 85¢ $100 4h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 4h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $227 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $53 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $89 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $137 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $238 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $49 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $152 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.51 · official $790.51 (match) · 611 history records