Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1579…078d crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$271 · open +$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$225
other 10% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -46.5% -51.6% 33% 22% -28.9%
≤30d 9 -46.5% -51.6% 33% 22% -28.9%
≤90d 9 -46.5% -51.6% 33% 22% -28.9%
all 9 -46.5% -51.6% 33% 22% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.6% 22% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -56.2% 11% -35.7%
15% -60.4% 11% -41.9%
20% -64.3% 11% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$267
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $5 $252 +$248 (+4950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $5 $28 +$23 (+461%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 74¢ 50¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 27¢ 50¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $128 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.71 · official $306.71 (match) · 36 history records