Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x157a…d8ea crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-18%) realized −$104 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$51
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$11
politics 5% −$28
sports 4% −$8
other 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 53% +13.0%
≤30d 57 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 39% -14.2%
≤90d 57 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 39% -14.2%
all 57 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 39% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -14.2%
10% -23.5% 37% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 32% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 30% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 61¢ 96¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 52¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$22 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$14 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$14 +87%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6 −$3 -39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +71%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 +$5 +85%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$20 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$15 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 20m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 36m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $58 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.38 · official $10.54 · 143 history records