Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1581…ec76 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-24%) realized −$287 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$104
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$168
other 18% −$39
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +18.5% +7.2% 67% 67% +19.6%
≤30d 41 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 39% -26.7%
≤90d 41 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 39% -26.7%
all 41 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 39% -26.7%
10% -32.3% 34% -33.7%
15% -38.8% 32% -40.1%
20% -44.8% 32% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage13d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $41 $50 +$10 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 65¢ 50¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$23 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $174 −$49 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.79 · official $69.79 (match) · 88 history records