Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1583…bdde crypto 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,833 (-6%) realized −$6,806 · open −$1,027
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%152W / 134L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day56.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$11,370
world 7% −$2,232
other 5% −$876
politics 2% −$52
sports 1% −$270
economics 1% −$81
tech 1% +$138
finance 1% −$322
weather 0% −$44
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.3% -7.4% 52% 37% -11.1%
≤30d 96 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 41% -11.7%
≤90d 286 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 44% -19.4%
all 286 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 44% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 44% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 32% -27.1%
15% -33.2% 20% -34.1%
20% -39.7% 13% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$164 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$6,806
Unrealized−$1,027
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses152 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions34
Markets (closed)286 / 320
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$409
Trades / day56.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next? Yes 50¢ 9¢ $151 $26 −$126 (-83%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 58¢ 46¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will Manel Kape fight Alexandre Pantoja next? Yes 50¢ 51¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 61¢ 86¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+41%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 74¢ 54¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-28%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 54¢ 68¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? Yes 72¢ 57¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 66¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 66¢ 34¢ $18 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 66¢ 47¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-29%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 50¢ 45¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 78¢ 41¢ $16 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 59¢ 14¢ $32 $7 −$25 (-77%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 77¢ 3¢ $115 $4 −$111 (-96%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? No 64¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 81¢ 6¢ $32 $2 −$30 (-93%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 51¢ 2¢ $51 $2 −$49 (-96%)
Evo Morales arrested by June 30? Yes 49¢ 2¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-95%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 81¢ 7¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-91%)
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $42 −$17 -40%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 29 $28 +$8 +30%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat? Jun 29 $37 −$1 -4%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Jun 29 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 29 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Jun 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $81 +$1 +2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 29 $29 +$13 +46%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 29 $52 −$8 -15%
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? Jun 29 $37 +$9 +25%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 29 $357 −$216 -60%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 29 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $146 −$3 -2%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 29 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $147 +$20 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 29 $81 −$2 -3%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 29 $80 +$3 +4%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 29 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $163 +$2 +1%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 29 $118 −$10 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? Jun 29 $120 −$2 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 29 $136 −$12 -9%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 29 $134 −$6 -4%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $138 −$2 -1%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 29 $339 +$26 +8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $152 −$15 -10%
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 29 $154 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 29 $124 +$46 +37%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 29 $256 +$91 +36%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 29 $380 −$51 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 29 $774 −$88 -11%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $135 +$29 +22%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 28 $256 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $301 −$7 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 27 $161 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 27 $16 +$4 +24%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 27 $218 −$19 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $37 +$33 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? SELL No 65¢ $39 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL No 56¢ $39 1h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $41 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 1h
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 1h
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? SELL Yes 75¢ $46 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 59¢ $59 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $58 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 1h
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $65 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $69 1h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? SELL No 71¢ $70 1h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $70 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 80¢ $79 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $79 1h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL Yes 84¢ $83 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL No 68¢ $83 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $108 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 52¢ $107 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $118 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $123 1h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL Yes 74¢ $124 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $129 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $137 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 62¢ $139 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $154 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.69 · official $276.69 (match) · 3500 history records