Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1584…8d38 crypto 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%324W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$29
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$4
other 2% +$2
finance 2% +$1
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 334 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 334 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 334 -0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses324 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)334 / 336
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $20 9h
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.69 · official $14.73 (match) · 669 history records