Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x1585…c3b7 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+4%) realized +$154 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$166
14 days+$546
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$180
other 5% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +44.4% +30.6% 60% 60% +6.1%
≤30d 44 +39.8% +26.5% 59% 57% +16.4%
≤90d 72 +3.2% -6.7% 46% 44% -14.0%
all 72 +3.2% -6.7% 46% 44% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 44% -14.0%
10% -15.6% 39% -22.2%
15% -23.8% 38% -29.7%
20% -31.2% 36% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions7
Markets (closed)72 / 79
History coverage56d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 58¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+45%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$1 -6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$20 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$44 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$20 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$36 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$50 +197%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$24 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$33 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$17 -67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$2 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +121%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$43 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$32 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $303 +$19 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $336 +$224 +67%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $102 +$4 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $234 +$46 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 +$106 +99%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $1 +$4 +561%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $104 +$111 +107%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$107 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $51 +$29 +58%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $163 −$10 -6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $53 −$20 -38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $148 −$145 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $96 −$95 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $131 +$66 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $24 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $81 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $69 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $25 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $22 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.37 · official $286.37 (match) · 173 history records