Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1588…357c politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,521 (+1%) realized +$1,521 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$23
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$82
other 32% +$2
sports 13% +$1,569
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 +4.8% -5.2% 14% 8% -8.4%
all 131 +2.7% -7.1% 22% 15% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 15% -8.5%
10% -16.0% 15% -17.3%
15% -24.1% 15% -25.3%
20% -31.5% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,346) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$9 · ×9.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,352
Realized+$1,521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $809 $810 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $542 $542 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $462 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,425 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,904 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,021 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,350 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,034 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,479 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $359 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,936 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,761 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,768 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,869 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $806 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $792 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $894 +$674 +75%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $3,586 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,394 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,379 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $3,072 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +119%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $1,025 +$781 +76%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $4,455 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $4,648 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,304 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,969 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $2,407 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $836 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $543 57m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $373 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $374 3h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $342 27h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $343 28h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $462 45h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $462 46h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,227 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,351.98 · official $1,351.98 (match) · 467 history records