Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x1589…8194 world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$43 (+10%) realized +$32 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-0.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+10.2%	-0.3%	100%	50%	-1.7%
≤30d	4	+10.2%	-0.3%	100%	50%	-1.7%
≤90d	4	+10.2%	-0.3%	100%	50%	-1.7%
all	4	+10.2%	-0.3%	100%	50%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.3%	50%	-1.7%
10%	-9.8%	0%	-11.1%
15%	-18.5%	0%	-19.7%
20%	-26.5%	0%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$228

Realized+$32

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions10

Markets (closed)4 / 14

History coverage36d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	80¢	92¢	$69	$80	+$11 (+16%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	79¢	79¢	$40	$40	+$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	83¢	94¢	$30	$34	+$4 (+13%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	89¢	88¢	$18	$18	−$0 (-2%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	54¢	56¢	$16	$17	+$1 (+4%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?	No	17¢	14¢	$20	$16	−$4 (-21%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	94¢	94¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?	Yes	97¢	97¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$4	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	84¢	80¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	Jun 27	$23	+$1	+3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?	Jun 27	$5	+$1	+17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Jun 25	$19	+$3	+17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Jun 25	$15	+$1	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	SELL No	92¢	$27	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY No	94¢	$10	1h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?	BUY No	17¢	$21	1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	SELL Yes	80¢	$24	1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?	SELL No	100¢	$6	1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$10	5h
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	SELL No	92¢	$9	5h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on	BUY Yes	70¢	$4	5h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	89¢	$18	14h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026	BUY Yes	97¢	$10	44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL Yes	55¢	$20	44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL Yes	55¢	$2	44h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?	BUY No	85¢	$5	44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL Yes	80¢	$16	45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	BUY Yes	75¢	$15	2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	47¢	$19	2d
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$16	2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	79¢	$40	2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	BUY Yes	76¢	$23	2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	SELL No	92¢	$115	2d
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	BUY No	84¢	$1	24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY No	79¢	$20	24d
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	BUY No	80¢	$202	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.21 · official $227.68 (match) · 23 history records