Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
15 0x158a…03fc world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,799 (+22%) realized +$1,816 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$933now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,617
14 days+$2,617
30 days+$2,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$1,852
other 10% −$21
politics 4% −$8
finance 1% −$6
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +110.7% +90.6% 100% 100% +90.6%
≤30d 1 +110.7% +90.6% 100% 100% +90.6%
≤90d 17 -33.1% -39.5% 12% 12% +27.7%
all 29 -23.7% -31.0% 21% 17% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 17% +24.9%
10% -37.6% 14% +12.9%
15% -43.6% 14% +2.0%
20% -49.1% 10% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$59 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$933
Realized+$1,816
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage161d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,364 +$2,617 +111%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 25 $1,389 −$541 -39%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 09 $405 −$7 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 08 $294 −$60 -20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 08 $160 −$28 -18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $150 +$75 +50%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 30 $446 −$114 -26%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $220 −$97 -44%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 27 $50 −$42 -83%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 27 $100 −$28 -28%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $162 −$94 -58%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Mar 27 $83 −$32 -39%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $200 +$332 +166%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $80 +$120 +150%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $45 −$31 -69%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? Jan 23 $20 −$7 -34%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 19 $49 −$41 -84%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $123 +$20 +16%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $266 −$18 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 16 $50 −$43 -86%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 13 $78 −$11 -14%
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31? Jan 13 $41 −$27 -67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jan 13 $154 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $207 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $50 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $50 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $61 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $316 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $316 54d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $996 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $996 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $57 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $53 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $400 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $128 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $533 63d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $148 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $130 70d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $155 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $933.17 · official $933.17 (match) · 168 history records