Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x158a…2272
crypto · 582 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$671 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$744 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$744
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses197 / 385
Open positions0
Markets (closed)582 / 582
History coverage140d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 582 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$104
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $16 +$19 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $62 −$30 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $18 +$44 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $16 +$30 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 17 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 17 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $16 +$23 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 17 $16 −$11 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$742
tech 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $18 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $14 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.2% -57.6% 29% 29% -44.7%
≤30d 100 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 37% -22.4%
≤90d 328 -8.9% -17.6% 35% 32% -20.3%
all 582 -4.3% -13.4% 34% 32% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 32% -16.6%
10% -21.7% 29% -24.6%
15% -29.3% 26% -31.9%
20% -36.2% 24% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1614 history records