Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x158c…f03d world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
other 22% +$1
politics 6% +$13
sports 6% −$8
economics 3% +$1
tech 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -12.1% -20.5% 22% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -5.9% -14.9% 30% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 6% -9.0%
10% -23.0% 2% -17.7%
15% -30.4% 2% -25.7%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage284d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $148 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $30 −$2 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $128 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $53 −$5 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $76 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $17 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $61 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $66 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $29 −$1 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $14 +$2 +11%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Dec 06 $1 $0 -30%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 21 $11 −$2 -22%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 07 $30 +$13 +42%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $1 $0 +15%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 28 $18 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $69 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $69 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $44 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.63 · official $40.20 (match) · 188 history records