Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x158e…216b sports 419 markets active 18h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+3%) realized +$181 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%164W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$215
14 days+$233
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$220
crypto 34% −$199
other 11% +$87
weather 0% −$5
world 0% +$31
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.8% +9.3% 45% 45% +71.3%
≤30d 134 -1.9% -11.2% 49% 48% +10.8%
≤90d 414 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 38% -7.7%
all 414 -7.2% -16.0% 40% 38% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -7.7%
10% -24.1% 36% -16.6%
15% -31.4% 32% -24.6%
20% -38.1% 27% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses164 / 250
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)414 / 419
History coverage76d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $11 +$23 +208%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $31 +$52 +171%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $47 +$21 +45%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $41 +$128 +313%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$37 +242%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15 +$7 +47%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $15 +$7 +49%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$23 +77%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$32 +159%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$17 +325%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$20 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$14 +285%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $5 +$3 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 31 $5 +$9 +180%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $11 +$6 +54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $20 +$6 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $30 +$32 +105%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $111 +$44 +40%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 32h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 59¢ $35 33h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming $1 33h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 19¢ $0 33h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 22¢ $10 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 43h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 43h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 99¢ $83 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 36¢ $31 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 21¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 31¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 39¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers $1 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 41¢ $61 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 35¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 16¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 15¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 20¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 25¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 17¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 26¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.29 · official $5.29 (match) · 831 history records