Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x158e…4659 other 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,951 (+2%) realized +$1,951 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 77L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$17
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$165
politics 30% −$32
sports 12% +$2,046
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$91
tech 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 +5.7% -4.4% 13% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 59 +5.0% -5.0% 12% 5% -6.8%
all 89 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 9% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 9% -7.5%
10% -18.5% 9% -16.4%
15% -26.4% 8% -24.4%
20% -33.6% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$1,296) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$8 · ×26.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,951
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage108d
Avg bet$979
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,442 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $637 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,806 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,226 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,847 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $410 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $320 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $1,312 +$7 +1%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $60 +$140 +233%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $1,530 +$1,776 +116%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,618 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,358 −$3 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,227 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,217 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,258 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,323 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 02 $934 +$439 +47%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 28 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $861 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $929 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $938 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $681 20h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $682 22h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $422 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $422 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $449 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $450 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $472 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $472 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $486 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $487 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $409 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $410 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $384 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $385 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $394 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $395 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $445 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $445 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $404 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $405 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $319 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $320 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 18d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,440 18d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,443 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records