Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1590…000d
crypto · 1379 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10,613 +244%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,924 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$10,924
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses209 / 1162
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1371 / 1379
History coverage106d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 8 History 1371 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$34
14 days−$121
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +393%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $9 −$5 -58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $28 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $1 $0 -38%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 69,000 on June 2, 9AM ET? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$66
sports 31% +$10,582
other 8% +$94
weather 8% +$370
world 2% −$50
politics 2% +$28
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% −$15
tech 0% −$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 0¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 1¢ $1 3h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $8 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -46.1% -51.3% 13% 13% -42.0%
≤30d 91 -59.4% -63.2% 5% 5% -62.5%
≤90d 1209 -43.3% -48.7% 13% 8% -49.4%
all 1371 -39.1% -44.9% 15% 8% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.9% 8% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.2% 8% -41.0%
15% -55.0% 7% -46.7%
20% -59.4% 7% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.55 · official $8.56 (match) · 3500 history records