Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1591…3cc4
crypto · 180 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,961 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,886 · open −$74
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,886
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 104
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage88d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim 1846? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 RB Leipzig? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: SV Werder Bremen 1 - 2 FC Augsburg? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 0 Athletic Club? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nets Nets 35¢ 0¢ $316 $0 −$316 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Bulls 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 57¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $31 −$19 -63%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $308 −$21 -7%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $109 −$6 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $110 +$85 +77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $155 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: AS Roma 2 - 0 ACF Fiorentina? May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: AS Roma 2 - 1 ACF Fiorentina? May 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? May 04 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $61 +$46 +76%
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? May 03 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 1 - 0 Elche CF? May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: CA Osasuna 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 02 $51 +$365 +711%
Exact Score: SV Werder Bremen 1 - 2 FC Augsburg? May 02 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: FC Nantes 2 - 1 Olympique de Marseille? May 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 RB Leipzig? May 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 2 Fulham FC? May 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 0 Athletic Club? May 02 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Lorient? May 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim 1846? May 02 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 02 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 02 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw? May 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 2 - 0 Levante UD? May 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $193 +$281 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 01 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $228 −$221 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$71 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 16 $30 +$27 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 16 $220 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$1,488
sports 14% −$165
other 9% −$121
politics 4% −$124
world 2% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $287 8h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 16h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 16h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $103 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $109 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $195 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $155 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $110 41h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 39d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 40d
Exact Score: AS Roma 2 - 0 ACF Fiorentina? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 40d
Exact Score: AS Roma 2 - 1 ACF Fiorentina? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 40d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 40d
Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 40d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 33¢ $51 40d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 40d
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 40d
Exact Score: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 40d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 42¢ $51 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.3% -40.6% 30% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 10 -34.3% -40.6% 30% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 178 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 34% -15.1%
all 178 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 34% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 34% -15.1%
10% -32.3% 29% -23.2%
15% -38.8% 25% -30.6%
20% -44.8% 21% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.62 · official $75.62 (match) · 375 history records