Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1591…a8db crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$126
other 5% +$3
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 2 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤90d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 0% -8.8%
all 48 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 35% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 35% -8.5%
10% -21.4% 35% -17.2%
15% -29.0% 35% -25.2%
20% -36.0% 35% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage226d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Germany 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 02 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 07 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 15 $9,695 −$10 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 13 $48 +$46 +97%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 06 $166 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $35 +$35 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 11AM ET Feb 08 $36 +$36 +100%
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $45 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 09 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 30 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 30 $26 +$26 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 22 $45 −$45 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Dec 20 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 16 $14 +$14 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 07 $18 +$18 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 05 $39 +$39 +100%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Nov 26 $109 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 22 $44 −$44 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 21, 12AM ET Nov 22 $30 +$30 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET Nov 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $4 +$4 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 1AM ET Nov 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET Nov 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4AM ET Nov 13 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 11 $60 +$60 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 10 $62 +$62 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 09 $61 +$61 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Nov 07 $81 −$81 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 07 $29 +$29 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 07 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 06 $8 +$8 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 12PM ET Nov 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $35 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $17 5d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $37 31d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $25 31d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $28 31d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 31d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 31d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $107 73d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? BUY No 99¢ $105 84d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $978 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $979 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $123 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $123 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 96d
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.90 · official $99.90 (match) · 103 history records