Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1594…a834 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-25%) realized −$265 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$120
14 days−$132
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$245
crypto 36% −$87
sports 18% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -24.3% -31.5% 37% 37% -40.7%
≤30d 32 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 38% -40.3%
≤90d 83 -12.6% -21.0% 37% 36% -36.7%
all 83 -12.6% -21.0% 37% 36% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 36% -36.7%
10% -28.5% 30% -42.8%
15% -35.4% 25% -48.3%
20% -41.8% 23% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage70d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 78¢ $80 $97 +$17 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$30 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$101 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 −$9 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$10 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $55 −$43 -78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 05 $1 +$3 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $1 +$3 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $81 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 32h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $12 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $25 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $102 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.62 · official $96.62 (match) · 169 history records