Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1595…ea87 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
politics 21% −$2
other 20% −$5
culture 8% −$1
economics 8% −$1
world 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 148 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage164d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $43 −$1 -4%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $52 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 24 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 24 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 24 $108 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 24 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $469 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $8 7d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $8 8d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $48 21d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $49 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 88¢ $41 34d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $43 35d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $45 114d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $45 114d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 114d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 114d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 114d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 114d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 118d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 118d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 95¢ $51 118d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $51 118d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 118d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 118d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 118d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $49 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $49 118d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $55 118d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $55 118d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 118d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 118d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.46 · official $46.46 (match) · 568 history records