Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1596…0e1a other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$565 (-18%) realized −$346 · open −$219
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$391
14 days+$391
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$73
politics 28% −$224
sports 20% −$468
finance 6% +$206
world 3% −$100
crypto 2% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 33% +22.1%
≤30d 27 -24.5% -31.7% 30% 30% -28.0%
≤90d 27 -24.5% -31.7% 30% 30% -28.0%
all 27 -24.5% -31.7% 30% 30% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 30% -28.0%
10% -38.2% 30% -34.9%
15% -44.2% 30% -41.2%
20% -49.6% 19% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$66 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized−$346
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage53d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $259 $351 +$92 (+36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $264 $239 −$25 (-10%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $355 $116 −$239 (-67%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $150 $112 −$37 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $72 +$352 +491%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $129 +$68 +53%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 +$131 +365%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $45 −$33 -73%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $204 +$206 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $279 −$274 -98%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $217 −$211 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $302 −$295 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $46 6m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $70 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $16 7h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $16 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $5 17h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $21 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $31 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 46h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 46h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 47h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.37 · official $979.37 (match) · 81 history records