Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1597…6ede sports 717 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,165 (-20%) realized −$2,074 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%285W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$1,861
14 days−$1,861
30 days−$1,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,728
other 32% −$487
world 1% −$4
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -7.4% -16.3% 57% 30% -36.0%
≤30d 195 -5.0% -14.1% 58% 30% -31.4%
≤90d 689 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 31% -28.5%
all 689 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 31% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 31% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 26% -35.3%
15% -29.4% 22% -41.6%
20% -36.3% 19% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$2,074
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses285 / 404
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions28
Markets (closed)689 / 717
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $69 $64 −$6 (-8%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $15 $35 +$21 (+138%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 58¢ 76¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+33%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 34¢ $29 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $10 $26 +$17 (+176%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 72¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $17 $22 +$4 (+26%)
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 83¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 59¢ 58¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 92¢ 88¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 78¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 72¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Under 22¢ 35¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 68¢ 94¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+31%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 26¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$5 -11%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$6 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $14 +$8 +58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 −$12 -40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $45 +$40 +88%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +34%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +37%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$3 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $75 +$58 +77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$5 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 +$26 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $59 −$24 -41%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$5 -28%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$19 +94%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$4 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $5 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 28m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 38m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 44m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 44m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 44m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 44m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $15 44m
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 44m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 48m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 53m
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 55m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $5 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 58m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 24¢ $5 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 29¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.07 · official $391.68 (match) · 3500 history records