trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -33.6% | -39.9% | 40% | 20% | -21.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -29.0% | -35.8% | 45% | 27% | -18.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 57% | 43% | -12.6% |
| all | 21 | -12.4% | -20.8% | 43% | 33% | -17.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.8% | 33% | -17.1% |
| 10% | -28.4% | 19% | -25.1% |
| 15% | -35.3% | 19% | -32.3% |
| 20% | -41.6% | 14% | -38.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 73¢ | 79¢ | $2,700 | $2,922 | +$222 (+8%) |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 28¢ | $338 | $451 | +$113 (+34%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Jun 21 | $229 | −$78 | -34% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $195 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $1,303 | +$656 | +50% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $72 | −$70 | -97% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1,012 | −$870 | -86% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $205 | −$200 | -98% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Jun 10 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 01 | $5,000 | −$1,687 | -34% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $60 | +$42 | +70% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $5,000 | +$60 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 25 | $4,969 | +$576 | +12% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $3,146 | +$543 | +17% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 18 | $1,133 | +$148 | +13% |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th | Apr 03 | $100 | +$403 | +403% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 19 | $190 | −$190 | -100% |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th | Mar 19 | $580 | −$580 | -100% |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 19 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 18 | $700 | +$307 | +44% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 09 | $360 | −$360 | -100% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 08 | $620 | −$39 | -6% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Mar 06 | $574 | −$74 | -13% |