Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1599…a8b6 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,697 (-4%) realized −$8,514 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%58W / 120L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,908per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$4,010est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,255
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -58.5% -62.4% 10% 10% -74.9%
≤30d 96 -53.7% -58.1% 15% 15% -53.1%
≤90d 178 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 25% -26.8%
all 178 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 25% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 25% -26.8%
10% -40.0% 21% -33.8%
15% ← realistic here -45.8% 17% -40.2%
20% -51.2% 15% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$2,047) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,000 vs −$833 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,763
Realized−$8,514
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses58 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$4,010
Open positions4
Markets (closed)178 / 105
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$1,908
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Ireland 25¢ 28¢ $1,160 $1,301 +$141 (+12%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Afghanistan 39¢ 22¢ $762 $433 −$329 (-43%)
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 33¢ 48¢ $12 $17 +$6 (+47%)
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Afghanistan 16¢ 52¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+222%)
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Afghanistan 44¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
SA20: Pretoria Capitals vs Sunrisers Eastern Cape (Game Final) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Pakistan T20 Series: Pakistan vs South Africa (Oct 28) Jun 19 $129 −$128 -100%
Will India win? Jun 19 $1 +$6 +584%
WPL: UP Warriorz Women vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women Jun 19 $575 −$575 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Jun 19 $59 −$44 -74%
U19 World Cup: England Under-19s vs India Under-19s Jun 19 $27 −$22 -82%
ILT20: Desert Vipers vs MI Emirates (Game 1) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Jun 19 $1,378 −$1,358 -98%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) Jun 19 $166 −$158 -95%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs UAE (Game 1) Jun 19 $52 −$27 -51%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Jun 19 $2,340 −$2,430 -104%
SA20: Joburg Super Kings vs MI Cape Town (Game 1) Jun 19 $35 −$34 -97%
T20 World Cup: India vs USA (Game 1) Jun 19 $857 −$877 -102%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 19 $557 −$507 -91%
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) Jun 19 $135 −$65 -48%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Jun 19 $129 −$164 -128%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Jun 19 $135 −$128 -95%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Jun 19 $3 $0 -10%
ILT20: Gulf Giants vs MI Emirates (Game 1) Jun 19 $528 −$528 -100%
Asia Cup: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Jun 19 $0 $0 +140%
International T20 Series: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 1) - Completed ma Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Jun 19 $42 −$39 -94%
T20 Series New Zealand vs Zimbabwe, Women: New Zealand vs Zimbabwe Jun 19 $137 −$137 -100%
SA20: Pretoria Capitals vs Sunrisers Eastern Cape (Game 1) Jun 19 $1,373 −$1,373 -100%
ILT20: Gulf Giants vs Sharjah Warriorz (Game 1) Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1) - Who win Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Jun 19 $890 −$889 -100%
ILT20: Dubai Capitals vs Gulf Giants (Game 1) Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) Jun 19 $19 +$96 +518%
ILT20: Abu Dhabi Knight Riders vs MI Emirates (Game 1) - Who wins the Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder (Game 1) Jun 19 $260 −$261 -100%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) - Who w Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Big Bash League: Melbourne Renegades vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) Jun 19 $240 −$237 -98%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa Jun 19 $430 −$434 -101%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 19 $5,426 −$5,672 -104%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Jun 19 $216 −$184 -85%
BPL: Chattogram Challengers vs Noakhali (Game 1) Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Jun 19 $1,017 −$977 -96%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jun 19 $276 −$264 -96%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Ireland (Game 1) Jun 19 $1,906 −$1,906 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs West Indies (Game 1) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Perth Scorchers (Game 1) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Jun 19 $26 +$94 +357%
SA20: Durban's Super Giants vs Paarl Royals (Game 1) Jun 19 $184 −$184 -100%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs USA (Game 1) Jun 19 $605 −$604 -100%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 42¢ $4 44m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 42¢ $4 44m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $31 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $16 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $32 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $16 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 35¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 35¢ $68 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 40¢ $33 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 40¢ $9 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 38¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 38¢ $4 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 38¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 38¢ $9 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 39¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 39¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 36¢ $4 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 37¢ $57 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 39¢ $118 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 25¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 24¢ $76 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 25¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 22¢ $172 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 22¢ $4 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 21¢ $447 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 19¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 17¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,762.94 · official $1,763.39 (match) · 3500 history records