Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x159b…47d8 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-33%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 43% 43% -41.5%
≤30d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 43% 43% -41.5%
≤90d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 43% 43% -41.5%
all 7 -39.7% -45.4% 43% 43% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.4% 43% -41.5%
10% ← realistic here -50.6% 14% -47.1%
15% -55.4% 14% -52.2%
20% -59.8% 14% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$80 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $68 +$66 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $130 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $144 −$61 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $79 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $78 −$75 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records