Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x159b…312b sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%142W / 6L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$19
14 days−$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$83
other 20% +$33
politics 2% +$2
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 17% -11.5%
≤30d 23 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 13% -9.1%
≤90d 148 +1.2% -8.4% 96% 5% -8.4%
all 148 +1.2% -8.4% 96% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -8.4%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.1%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses142 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage85d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 75¢ 88¢ $147 $172 +$25 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $122 +$26 +22%
Bad Homburg Open: Completed Match: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $171 +$5 +3%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 25 $166 +$5 +3%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 24 $163 +$3 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $167 −$4 -2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $121 +$45 +38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 +$3 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Team Top Batter Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter Draw Jun 14 $54 +$1 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Completed match? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $153 +$2 +1%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Team Top Batt Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Team Top Batt Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will India win? Jun 08 $102 $0 +0%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Team Top Batt Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 07 $146 +$7 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Sai Sudharsan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $140 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seas May 29 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Eshan Malinga win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Harsh Dubey win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 28 $15 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $93 +$9 +10%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $127 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Complete May 23 $50 $0 +1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA - Team Top Batter Dr May 20 $66 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs P May 18 $95 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals - Completed May 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - T May 17 $54 +$1 +1%
T20 2nd Innings 6 Overs Line: O/U 80.5 May 17 $119 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - T May 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $15 −$1 -4%
New pandemic in 2026? May 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans - Toss May 16 $45 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans - Most May 16 $46 $0 +1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs France - Team May 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - T May 15 $23 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - T May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - T May 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Most Sixes Mum May 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Team Top Batte May 14 $24 $0 +1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA - Completed match? May 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $43 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $42 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 75¢ $59 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 75¢ $57 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 75¢ $31 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $148 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 82¢ $122 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Completed Match: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Yes 99¢ $54 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $19 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $30 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $20 38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $83 38h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 98¢ $151 42h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 42h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 94¢ $166 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 98¢ $166 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 97¢ $163 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 93¢ $60 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 93¢ $103 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $167 6d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $166 8d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 72¢ $121 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $119 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $119 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter Draw SELL No 99¢ $56 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $61 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter Draw BUY No 98¢ $25 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter Draw BUY No 97¢ $7 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter Draw BUY No 94¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.74 · official $169.77 · 401 history records