Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x159b…b74e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$207 (+3%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$3
tech 26% −$22
culture 21% −$2
sports 6% +$228
other 1% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 7 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 14% -2.9%
≤90d 7 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 14% -2.9%
all 16 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 19% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 19% -6.8%
10% -7.9% 12% -15.7%
15% -16.8% 12% -23.8%
20% -24.9% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.03 per $1 lost it wins $8.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage148d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-26? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +10%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +6%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) May 19 $12 +$1 +5%
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5) May 19 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 21 $3 $0 +5%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $146 +$66 +45%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5 Feb 21 $152 +$158 +104%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 20 $196 −$25 -13%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 19 $1,576 +$3 +0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 Feb 19 $3,134 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $13 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $20 5d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $15 12d
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 94¢ $16 15d
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 91¢ $13 21d
Audax CS Italiano vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $20 28d
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié 95¢ $12 35d
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5) BUY US Lecce 94¢ $17 57d
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 115d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 69¢ $146 116d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 116d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,579 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $341 116d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,235 116d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 116d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 116d
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 92¢ $1,430 117d
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 92¢ $1,084 117d
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 92¢ $347 117d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 117d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $109 117d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $196 117d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 117d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 117d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 117d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 117d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL No 99¢ $1,490 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.09 · official $35.09 (match) · 46 history records