Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

15 0x15a0…bbcf other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$516 (+12%) realized +$520 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip

Net edge-62%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%3W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$292per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$28

7 days+$28

14 days+$28

30 days+$28

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-62.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+34.6%	+21.8%	50%	50%	+6.3%
≤30d	2	+34.6%	+21.8%	50%	50%	+6.3%
≤90d	2	+34.6%	+21.8%	50%	50%	+6.3%
all	14	-58.4%	-62.3%	21%	21%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-62.3%	21%	+1.4%
10%	-65.9%	21%	-8.3%
15%	-69.2%	21%	-17.2%
20%	-72.2%	21%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -58% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -78% → late -39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$579 vs −$111 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized+$520

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses3 / 11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage144d

Avg bet$292

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$125	$121	−$4 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$61	+$64	+105%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$100	−$36	-36%
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	Feb 09	$100	−$100	-100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?	Feb 09	$100	−$100	-100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Feb 09	$1,900	+$1,136	+60%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho	Feb 08	$824	−$824	-100%
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Feb 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Feb 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show	Feb 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Feb 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime	Feb 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh	Feb 08	$40	−$40	-100%
Rams vs. Seahawks	Jan 26	$1,000	+$537	+54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	Jan 26	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$128	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$61	9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$64	9h
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	130d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?	BUY Yes	5¢	$100	130d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,036	130d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho	BUY No	37¢	$324	130d
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	BUY No	2¢	$100	130d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho	BUY No	37¢	$500	130d
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	130d
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	130d
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	130d
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	130d
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh	BUY Yes	7¢	$40	130d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,600	144d
Rams vs. Seahawks	SELL Seahawks	100¢	$1,537	144d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$20	144d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$300	144d
Rams vs. Seahawks	BUY Seahawks	65¢	$1,000	144d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.82 · official $120.82 (match) · 165 history records