Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15a1…5ef3
weather · 773 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$251 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,140
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses671 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions49
Markets (closed)792 / 773
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day212.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 49 History 792 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$314
7 days−$156
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $551 $556 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 93¢ 88¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 50¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 25? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 20? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 27? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 48°C or higher on May 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 22? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 19? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$376
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 -21.5% -29.0% 74% 8% -11.0%
≤30d 792 -8.2% -16.9% 85% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 792 -8.2% -16.9% 85% 10% -9.5%
all 792 -8.2% -16.9% 85% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover212.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 10% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -32.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -38.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,139.96 · official $1,139.97 (match) · 3500 history records