Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15a5…6964
world · 100 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses28 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage327d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $71 +$3 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $112 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $74 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $153 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 −$3 -9%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $70 +$1 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $141 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $7 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$3
other 23% $0
politics 21% −$1
sports 10% −$1
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% +$5
culture 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $41 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $2 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $38 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $44 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $44 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $33 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $32 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 82 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 99 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records