Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x15a9…ec4f world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,703 (+588%) realized +$12,867 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$13,582
crypto 27% −$403
politics 9% −$187
finance 7% −$150
tech 5% −$110
economics 4% −$79
other 3% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -93.6% -94.2% 6% 0% -99.0%
≤90d 39 +76.7% +59.9% 18% 13% +110.3%
all 39 +76.7% +59.9% 18% 13% +110.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.9% 13% +110.3%
10% +44.6% 13% +90.1%
15% +30.6% 13% +71.8%
20% +17.8% 13% +54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +654% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +654% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +257% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,040 vs −$48 · ×42.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.33 per $1 lost it wins $9.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$12,867
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage41d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 0¢ 0¢ $121 $16 −$105 (-87%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in May? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 06 $10 −$10 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $104 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 01 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $145 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $110 +$6 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $110 +$11,033 +10030%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $5 +$156 +2927%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 25 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $330 −$330 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $100 +$131 +131%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $83 +$2,948 +3546%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 0¢ $111 2h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No 1¢ $5 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY No 1¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10d
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? BUY No 13¢ $50 14d
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in May? BUY No 0¢ $10 17d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 14¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 2¢ $10 22d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 25d
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $31 26d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 29d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 4¢ $30 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 29d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $21 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 29d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? BUY No 11¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.06 · official $17.06 (match) · 75 history records