Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15ae…6ffd
politics · 330 markets active 190d ago
7.0score
+$205,139 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$882,845 · open −$10,393
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Net worth$62,745
Realized+$882,845
Unrealized−$10,393
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses140 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 330
History coverage1089d
Avg bet$8,226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 330 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$700
7 days+$700
14 days+$700
30 days+$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $31,022 $41,415 +$10,393 (+33%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $31,022 $20,630 −$10,393 (-33%)
How many Yea votes in the House for the American Rescue Plan? 220 100¢ $0 $700 +$700 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
How many Yea votes in the House for the American Rescue Plan? Jun 14 $0 +$700 —%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $58,079 +$58 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $180,638 +$842 +0%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Apr 13 $7,152 +$102 +1%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Oct 15 $6,741 −$3,211 -48%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 19 $264 −$186 -70%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Biden drops out by July 4? Jul 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 19 $54 +$1,866 +3456%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 19 $3,470 −$2,910 -84%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023? Jun 06 $850 +$150 +18%
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? Jun 06 $19,153 +$947 +5%
Will "Hamas" be said 10 or more times in the 4th RNC primary debate? Dec 08 $530 +$20 +4%
Sam back as CEO of OpenAI? Dec 07 $2,321 −$74 -3%
OpenAI permanent CEO by Dec 31? Dec 07 $48 −$48 -100%
OpenAI board out by end of week? Dec 07 $166 +$39 +24%
Sam Altman announces new company by Nov 24? Nov 26 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 1? Nov 07 $68 −$68 -100%
US military intervention by Oct 31? Nov 03 $934 +$62 +7%
Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov 30? Nov 02 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? Nov 01 $1,458 +$498 +34%
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker? Nov 01 $485 +$385 +79%
Israel or Palestine responsible for Gaza hospital explosion? Nov 01 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Saudi Arabia accept invitation to join BRICS? Oct 20 $194 $0 +0%
Will there be a US government shutdown by October 2? Oct 14 $69 −$47 -69%
Will Trump smile in his mugshot? Aug 25 $150 −$45 -30%
Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election? Jul 27 $5,000 −$1,138 -23%
Putin to remain President of Russia through Monday? Jul 27 $28 −$14 -49%
Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? Jun 26 $1,456 +$14 +1%
[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Jun 25 $1,173 +$8,628 +736%
Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? Jun 08 $600 +$50 +8%
Will Trump smile in his mugshot? Apr 04 $20 +$55 +275%
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? Mar 31 $228 −$122 -54%
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on January 6, 2022? Mar 30 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will Kawhi Leonard Sign with the Clippers for the NBA 2021-22 season o Mar 30 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Cardano ($ADA) break $3 before January 1, 2022? Mar 30 $5,600 −$600 -11%
Will the US have more than 200,000 new daily COVID-19 cases on or befo Mar 30 $8,000 +$559 +7%
Will Space Jam: A New Legacy or Black Widow gross more domestically on Mar 30 $1,000 $0 +0%
What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count be in the US on May 15 Mar 30 $500 +$534 +107%
Will the Warriors beat the Thunder by more than 9.5 points in their Oc Mar 30 $5,000 +$252 +5%
Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily averag Mar 30 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the Bills or Titans win in their week six matchup? Mar 30 $6,000 +$608 +10%
Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? Mar 30 $1,000 −$100 -10%
Will OpenSea launch a token by the end of 2021? Mar 30 $7,500 $0 +0%
Will the bipartisan infrastructure bill become law by November 11, 202 Mar 30 $21,000 +$891 +4%
Will Bitcoin ($BTC) price reach $70,000 before November 15, 2021? Mar 30 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will any of the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, or Chairman Mar 30 $1,000 $0 +0%
How many J&J vaccine doses will be administered by May 1, 2021? Mar 30 $2,002 $0 +0%
Will the 2021 Tokyo Olympics take place? Mar 30 $4,400 $0 +0%
Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 21? Mar 30 $2,000 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% +$651,749
politics 25% +$170,557
crypto 12% +$9,676
sports 10% +$30,969
world 4% +$8,679
economics 2% −$3,852
culture 1% +$3,272
tech 1% +$21
weather 0% +$682
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 190d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 190d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $19,980 190d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $18,119 190d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $59,736 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $59,760 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $378 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $4,672 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $2,319 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $1,624 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $9,940 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 99¢ $9,940 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $9,950 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $995 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $9,950 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $6,121 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $794 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $2,985 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $50 340d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 100¢ $100 340d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $7,152 508d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $78 695d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 695d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 64¢ $500 695d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,400 695d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 14¢ $560 695d
Biden drops out of presidential race? SELL No 14¢ $694 695d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 22¢ $86 716d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 716d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 330 +33.0% +20.3% 42% 22% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 22% +20.6%
10% ← realistic here +8.8% 16% +9.0%
15% -1.7% 12% -1.5%
20% -11.3% 10% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,744.86 · official $62,744.91 (match) · 2434 history records