Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15b1…25a6 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-9%) realized −$323 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%44W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$266
14 days−$362
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$312
other 21% −$23
world 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 46% -18.6%
≤30d 86 +1.4% -8.3% 51% 49% -19.4%
≤90d 86 +1.4% -8.3% 51% 49% -19.4%
all 86 +1.4% -8.3% 51% 49% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 49% -19.4%
10% -17.1% 47% -27.1%
15% -25.1% 42% -34.2%
20% -32.4% 33% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses44 / 42
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage13d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 +$31 +76%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -80%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $18 $0 -1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$18 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$13 +62%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 −$8 -26%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $40 −$39 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$38 -74%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $126 −$2 -2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -54%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$10 -52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $152 +$20 +13%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$3 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 −$52 -86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$8 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 56m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 57m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 58m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $91 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $91 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 12h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $18 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 16h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $18 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $20 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 22h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.52 · official $426.52 (match) · 187 history records