Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15b1…0329
crypto · 40 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$9 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses35 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage45d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 10? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 10? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 10? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 24? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 19? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 24? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 24? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 24? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 24? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on May 13? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 9? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 9? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10PM ET May 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 08 $31 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on April 30? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 49% $0
crypto 39% +$7
tech 7% $0
economics 2% $0
other 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 21d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22d
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $25 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $23 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 27d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on May 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 25 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 4% -8.0%
≤90d 35 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 3% -8.3%
all 35 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 3% -8.3%
10% -16.8% 0% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.97 · official $39.97 (match) · 89 history records