Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15b7…1ebb other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$159 (+10%) realized +$54 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$136
sports 18% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -4.1%
≤30d 17 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -4.1%
≤90d 17 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -4.1%
all 17 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 53% -4.1%
10% -13.8% 53% -13.3%
15% -22.1% 41% -21.7%
20% -29.8% 18% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$63 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $170 $275 +$105 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 +$66 +125%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $178 +$78 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $168 +$77 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $283 +$83 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 +$44 +42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 +$155 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 40m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $105 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $73 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $105 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $53 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $52 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $63 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $157 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $105 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.18 · official $275.18 (match) · 43 history records