Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x15b9…3084 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%47W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$9
crypto 10% +$1
other 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 59 +0.1% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses47 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage544d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 02 $40 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $21 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $5,801 −$6 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 2h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $35 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 149d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 182d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $44 212d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $36 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $54 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $25 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 365d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $38 366d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.39 · official $69.39 (match) · 122 history records